The global energy landscape is about to shift dramatically. Starting in 2026, an unprecedented wave of new LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity—over 120 billion cubic meters—is set to come online. From the U.S. and Qatar to Canada and Australia, the world will be flooded with gas. Prices are expected to fall, especially in Europe.
For Ukraine, a major gas importer, this sounds like good news. But this also raises a deeper, strategic question:
With cheaper gas available globally, should Ukraine still invest in domestic gas production—or simply rely on imports?
After drastically reducing its dependence on Russian gas since 2022, Ukraine now faces a new crossroads: building long-term energy security in a rapidly changing global market.
LNG Is a Game-Changer, But Not a Guarantee
In 2026, massive new LNG terminals will begin operation across several continents. This is expected to create a temporary surplus, driving down prices on hubs like TTF in Europe.
That opens a clear opportunity: Ukraine can benefit from cheaper spot-market prices and reduce budget pressure by importing LNG via European terminals, especially through Poland.
But cheap imports are not a strategy in themselves—they are a market condition. And as we’ve seen before, market conditions can change overnight. Relying entirely on global supply comes with risks.
Why Domestic Production Still Matters
Ukraine has one of the largest gas production potentials in Europe. Much of the infrastructure is already in place: gas fields, compressor stations, transmission networks. While some of the fields are mature, many can still produce for decades with the right investment and technology.
More importantly, domestic production means control. It’s about self-reliance in moments of crisis. It’s about shielding the economy from external shocks—whether they come from war, geopolitics, or logistics bottlenecks.
Yes, drilling is expensive and complex, especially during wartime. But it’s also:
• A hedge against import dependency
• A way to stabilize the national currency (by cutting dollar-denominated imports)
• A source of jobs and local tax revenues
• A pillar of industrial recovery in the postwar era
The Hidden Third Asset: Ukraine’s Gas Storage
Ukraine also holds a trump card many forget: Europe’s largest underground gas storage (UGS) capacity. Already, European traders are parking gas in Ukrainian storage facilities to optimize seasonal supply and demand.
As LNG volumes surge globally, seasonal storage will become even more critical. This turns Ukraine not just into a consumer—but a logistics and energy services hub for the region.
What Could the Optimal Strategy Look Like?
The real opportunity lies not in choosing between production or import—but in combining three elements into a coherent long-term strategy:
1. Summer – Import cheap LNG via Poland and inject it into Ukrainian storage
2. Autumn/Winter – Use domestic production to balance the system and ensure supply stability
3. Year-round – Offer competitive storage services to EU traders and monetize infrastructure
This is how Ukraine can become more than just energy secure—it can become energy useful to its neighbors.
What Needs to Happen Now?
To make this vision a reality, Ukraine should act in 2025:
• Secure long-term LNG import capacity from Poland (e.g. Swinoujscie or Gdansk terminals)
• Launch targeted gas production investment in safe, stable regions
• Modernize UGS facilities and market them to European companies
• Introduce a transparent and investor-friendly fiscal regime for upstream development
Final Thought
Cheap gas is great—but independence is better.
Ukraine is in a rare position: it has access to global supply, the capacity to produce its own, and the infrastructure to support Europe. The smartest move isn’t to choose one over the other—but to balance all three in a way that maximizes security, flexibility, and economic return.
